Scenario Simulator

Plays the rest of the season out ten thousand times on your actual entries, so you can try a plan and back out of it. Pick straight from the table below and every number on the page rebuilds. Read the ordering, not the number — which option beats which is far sturdier than by how much.

20 legs, not 18 weeks
Tie = OUT
10 teams play 🍴
8 teams play 🎄
6 play both

Your Entries

The same entries as the weekly helper — a pick made on either page shows on the other. Tap an entry to make it active.

Circa allows up to 10 per person.
Week —

If you pick this now, what happens later?

Each option re-runs the whole season with that team spent here. The two middle columns are the team you would still have for each holiday leg — a red number is what this pick costs you there. Most picks cost nothing; the ones that do are the decision.

Best possible path

The single best way to spend your remaining teams across every leg, solved exactly rather than simulated — the simulator's greedy rule takes the best team available each week, which can burn a team that was the only good option in November. This is not a script to follow. Over half these legs are still estimates and one injury voids any fixed plan. Read it for the one thing a single week cannot tell you: which week the schedule actually wants each team for.

If something goes wrong

We do not predict injuries — the market prices them faster and better than we could, and every posted line already includes today's news. What can be known now is how much the plan leans on any one team. A leg whose second-best option is a point behind needs no plan B; one whose second option is ten points back is a single injury away from being why you lose.

Ten paths, not one

Entries that pick the same team share the same result — if it loses, they all die together, so ten copies of the best plan are worth about one entry. These paths are solved one after another, each charged for every team it would share with an entry already placed. Most entries end up on worse teams on purpose; the point is not that each survives, it is that one of them does. Your active entry's column is highlighted.

Across all entries

Whether any of your entries is still standing. With several entries that is the question that matters, and it is not the same as any one of them surviving.

What to trust here: win probability comes from the de-vigged market moneyline where a book has posted one, and from a power rating fitted to this season's real spreads where none exists yet. Estimated legs are marked. Against real 2025 results these probabilities ran about 11 points optimistic in the 60–70% band, so percentages are rounded hard and are a ranking, not a forecast. This is decision support, not a prediction — ties eliminate you and no pick is ever safe.

21+. Informational only, not financial or betting advice. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.