Circa Survivor is a straight-up contest — pick one winner a week, never reuse a team, a loss or a tie ends the entry. Teams below are ranked by de-vigged market win probability (the sharpest public read), with future-value and popularity context. Track all your entries so one upset can't wipe them together.
Tap an entry to make it active, then use the picks below. Used teams are locked out for that entry. Lose one and hit mark out — it collapses out of the way and stops counting toward the weekly split. Stored in your browser only.
The scenario simulator moved to its own page. It plays the rest of the season out ten thousand times on your actual entries, shows what a pick costs you at the holiday legs, and lets you try a plan and back out of it. It has its own pick controls, so you can work entirely from there.
A diversified split for this week across all of your entries — concentrating some on the safest board and spreading the rest, so a single upset can't end them all. With a lot of entries you will be pushed onto weaker teams; the split says so rather than dressing it up.
The Thanksgiving & Christmas legs only let you pick from the teams playing those days. Keep at least one strong option unused for each. Showing the active entry; a leg turns red when you're down to your last couple of options.
Top available survival options each week, so you can save premium teams and keep unused teams for the holiday legs. Struck-through = already used by a live entry.
How the number is built: win probability comes from the de-vigged market moneyline (closing/latest snapshot), which beat our own model at picking winners in backtesting — so the market is the primary signal here. Popularity is an estimate (no field-entry data yet), shown only as rough contrarian context. This is decision support, not a prediction — ties eliminate you and no pick is ever safe.